Monthly Archives: December 2014

Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward

Posted on December 30, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

Using $124 S&P 500 EPS for 2015, the forward PE of the market is 16.8x, which seems reasonable compared to the 17.1x average PE since 1989. Unfortunately this comparison is misleading for two reasons:  The average since 1989 is inflated … Continue reading →

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Enviro-colonialism in New York

Posted on December 26, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

Liberals have unlimited capacity to compartmentalize issues and ignore their obvious interconnections. It would not be surprising to see The New York Times decry wage stagnation on Monday and income inequality on Tuesday; bemoan the low incomes of African Americans … Continue reading →

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Emerging Market Masochism

Posted on December 25, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

I had lunch in midtown with my friend Fred, a veteran Street salesman, who handed me a glossy brochure from an emerging market fund manager who had visited his office. The pitch was (Surprise!) emerging markets have underperformed, investors are … Continue reading →

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Deflation Fears will Weigh on Stocks for the Next Few Weeks, Creating Opportunities

Posted on December 16, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

Why are stocks selling off when economists tell us declining oil prices are wonderful? Answer: full valuations, investor complacency, financial blow-ups from plunging oil prices, and fears of global deflation. Investor Complacency A couple of years ago you could still … Continue reading →

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From the Greatest Generation to the Weakest (and Dumbest)

Posted on December 12, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

If Diane Feinstein and John McCain had been governing the U.S. during World War II, today we would be speaking German and worshipping the divine Shinto Emperor. Instead Americans look back with heartfelt gratitude at “the Greatest Generation” of men … Continue reading →

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Dems Suffer from ODS (Obamacare Denial Syndrome)

Posted on December 5, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

William Galston of the Brookings Institution thinks of himself as a moderate, level-headed Democrat well-versed in the subtle intricacies of public policy. Writing in The Wall Street Journal he admonished, “Democrats, It’s Time to Move On” (past the intra-party wrangling … Continue reading →

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Regulation Matters: Germany’s Green Energy Nightmare

Posted on December 1, 2014 by tomdoerflinger

Wall Street lavishly over-analyzes fiscal and especially monetary policy, while largely ignoring the economic impact of regulatory policy, despite its great importance for investors. Actually three disparate groups are guilty of this oversight: The media tends to focus on Washington … Continue reading →

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