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Monthly Archives: December 2014
Stocks Are Expensive, Offer Mediocre Risk / Reward
Using $124 S&P 500 EPS for 2015, the forward PE of the market is 16.8x, which seems reasonable compared to the 17.1x average PE since 1989. Unfortunately this comparison is misleading for two reasons: The average since 1989 is inflated … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged equity valuation, PE ratios, S&P 500, stock market, stock market cycles
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Enviro-colonialism in New York
Liberals have unlimited capacity to compartmentalize issues and ignore their obvious interconnections. It would not be surprising to see The New York Times decry wage stagnation on Monday and income inequality on Tuesday; bemoan the low incomes of African Americans … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged Andrew Cuomo, Elizabeth Warren, enviro-colonialism, fracking, inequality, New York State, poverty and health
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Emerging Market Masochism
I had lunch in midtown with my friend Fred, a veteran Street salesman, who handed me a glossy brochure from an emerging market fund manager who had visited his office. The pitch was (Surprise!) emerging markets have underperformed, investors are … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged asset allocation, diversification, emerging markets, equity investing
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From the Greatest Generation to the Weakest (and Dumbest)
If Diane Feinstein and John McCain had been governing the U.S. during World War II, today we would be speaking German and worshipping the divine Shinto Emperor. Instead Americans look back with heartfelt gratitude at “the Greatest Generation” of men … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged civilian casualties, greatest generation, torture, World War II
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Dems Suffer from ODS (Obamacare Denial Syndrome)
William Galston of the Brookings Institution thinks of himself as a moderate, level-headed Democrat well-versed in the subtle intricacies of public policy. Writing in The Wall Street Journal he admonished, “Democrats, It’s Time to Move On” (past the intra-party wrangling … Continue reading
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Regulation Matters: Germany’s Green Energy Nightmare
Wall Street lavishly over-analyzes fiscal and especially monetary policy, while largely ignoring the economic impact of regulatory policy, despite its great importance for investors. Actually three disparate groups are guilty of this oversight: The media tends to focus on Washington … Continue reading
Posted in Uncategorized
Tagged energy regulation, Europe growth, Germany, green energy, macroeconomics, Regulation
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