Something big and fundamental is happening in America—a broad-based revolt of ordinary citizens against Washington elites, left and right. Elite arrogance and ineptitude across a multiplicity of issues has provoked the unwashed masses beyond the Beltway. Let us count the ways.
Titans of the foreign policy establishment, ranging from Republicans John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Brett Stephens and Bill Kristol to New York Times pundits Bill Keller and Nick Kristoff, argue the U.S. should provide military aid to “moderate” Syrian rebels fighting Assad. To ordinary people this is a really, really dumb idea, and they let Congress know it. What part of the phrase “civil war” do these “experts” not understand? Have Iraq and Afghanistan taught them nothing? Why support rebels who hate Christians, Jews, and Americans as much as they hate Assad? When has America ever gotten credit for helping Muslims in the Mid East? How does the U.S. benefit from spending billions of dollars in Syria? Absurdly, elites characterize these cautionary queries as “isolationism” – as though the Syrian civil war resembled Hitler’s invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Then there is Obamacare, opposed not only by Republicans but also by labor unions and Democratic Congressmen (at least when the law applies to them). Rasmussen reports that 50% of Americans believe the law will worsen the healthcare system and only 30% think it will improve it. Obamacare’s 30/50 rule (companies must provide health insurance if they have 50 “fulltime” employees, defined as those working at least 30 hours per week) is creating a part-time workforce, which hurts low-income workers the most. The law overcharges young workers already burdened by education debts and a weak labor market. (Get ready to pay IRS fines if you don’t comply.) Waivers for favored interest groups and delay of sundry Obamacare provisions are unconstitutional selective enforcement of legislation.
Then there is the NSA Scandal, which unites ACLU lefties and Rand Paul libertarians.
Then there is the IRS Scandal, where the taxmen became an arm of the Democratic Party.
Then there is Benghazi, where the supreme incompetence of Hillary’s State Department led to the death of four officials, which Obama and Hillary blamed on a You-Tube video that supposedly inspired a spontaneous riot that somehow morphed into a military attack, complete with mortars and truck-mounted artillery.
Then there is the dreaded sequester. Obama thought any belt tightening by Uncle Sam would be a disaster, but out here in the Real World – where relentless, continuous corporate restructuring and cost-cutting are normal—it was no big deal. Ironically, the resulting decline in the deficit is one of Obama’s few economic successes.
Behind the Revolt: O’Poverty
As I have been predicting for a few years, elite arrogance and bureaucratic overreach are squelching “animal spirits” in the private economy. What company would be eager to hire when confronted with: A) an avalanche of regulation – Obamacare, Dodd Frank, the EPA’s war on fossil fuels, proliferating OSHA regulations, huge fines on banks; B) big hikes in marginal tax rates; C) a dearth of pro-growth initiatives such as tax reform and free trade agreements; D) the anti-capitalist rhetoric of Barack “you didn’t build that” Obama.
Last week the U.S. Census gave the President his annual economic report card.* It was not one you would rush home to show Mom and Dad:
- For Obama’s vaunted “middle class,” this is the worst recovery in over forty years. In 2012 median real household income was flat with 2011 but still down 4.3% since the recession ended in 2009. By contrast, in comparable three-year periods of prior recoveries this metric was: -1.6% (after the 2001 recession), -0.2% (1991), +4.3% (1982), +6.3% (1975).
- For the third year in a row, the poverty rate was a lofty 15% (after 14.3% in 2009). In the 44 years prior to 2010, it was at or above 15% in only three years—during or right after recessions. While G.W. Bush was president it averaged only 12.5%.
- Despite Obama’s attack on high earners, inequality is increasing. The Gini Coefficient climbed steadily from 0.466 in 2008 to an all-time record of 0.477 in 2012. (It averaged 0.466 while G.W. Bush was President.) Another, less abstract, metric tells the same story. In 2012 the 95th percentile of the income distribution earned 3.75x the median household income, far above the average of 3.56x when G.W. Bush was President.
The Leader of the Revolt Should . . .
The Republican politician who most effectively leverages this discontent will be one who respects Tea Party Values but goes way beyond the “base” to pursue an inclusive, culturally modern, pro-growth, small government, pro-privacy agenda that puts the DC elite in its place. Key features:
- An optimistic focus on economic growth and opportunity. Repeal and replace Obamacare so healthcare laws do not abridge privacy and discourage hiring, as Obamacare does.
- Agree with statist pundits like Tom Friedman that the “sequester” needs to be replaced with long-term entitlement reform because it is squeezing “vital investment” such as medical research and infrastructure.
- A positive environmental agenda focused on protecting more natural habitat without shutting down economically beneficial activity. End the war on fossil fuels but encourage “renewable” energy via basic research—not subsidies and mandates.
- Privacy from government snooping—a big, big issue for the Millenial Generation, which lives on the Web.
- An inclusive pro-growth immigration policy based on effective border security, attracting the best and the brightest, and letting illegals stay in America but without a special path to citizenship. (Citizenship is far more important to Democratic bosses than immigrants themselves.)
- Assuming he does not run for President, appoint the brilliant Dr. Benjamin Carson to a prominent position in charge of helping inner city communities escape the vortex of poverty, drugs, crime, broken families and bad schools.
*U.S. Census, Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2012 published September 2013
Copyright Thomas Doerflinger 2013. All Rights Reserved.
