William Galston of the Brookings Institution thinks of himself as a moderate, level-headed Democrat well-versed in the subtle intricacies of public policy. Writing in The Wall Street Journal he admonished, “Democrats, It’s Time to Move On” (past the intra-party wrangling over the unpopularity of Obamacare, recently lamented by Chuck Schumer). Galston opines:
“The American people are sending a large and urgent message to Washington. We want an economy that works for all of us, not just a favored few, and nothing we’ve heard from either party so far convinces us that you know how to get us there.”
Therefore, Galston argues, “we should spend the next two years debating answers to the questions that will define the country’s future”—the usual suspects such as how the information revolution is transforming the labor market, the soaring cost of college, infrastructure spending, promoting basic research, reducing income inequality, etc.
There’s just one problem: Arguably the biggest burden weighing on lower and middle income families is Obamacare, which a mendacious “progressive” policy elite foisted on the little people in the middle class (but not themselves). The policy flaws in this amorphous, labyrinthine legislative blob are legion, but for smaller “Main Street” businesses and their employees the two most egregious are:
- Small businesses that do not self-insure are obliged to provide the standard one-size-fits-all Obamacare insurance policy, which is usually more expensive and less flexible than what they had before. Obama simply lied when he said, “If you like your plan you can keep your plan. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.”
- To avoid Obamacare, small businesses have a strong incentive to stay small, under 50 full-time employees, defined as workers working more than 30 hours per week. This brings some of the worst features of Italy’s sclerotic labor market to the U.S.
Bottom line: Obamacare screws millions of middle class families who lost policies they were perfectly happy with, and it screws young workers who can’t get full-time jobs and are forced to stitch together two or three part-time jobs. No wonder the economy is sluggish and the middle class is shrinking. Affluent Americans are sheltered from these effects because they mostly work for large employers who self-insure. Paul Krugman and his Princeton University colleagues love Obamacare—just not for their own families. When they go to sign up for health insurance in 2015, they will see these reassuring words on the website:
“ The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) was signed into law by President Obama on March 23, 2010. Princeton University believes the active health care plan is a “grandfathered health plan” under the PPACA.” (emphasis in original)
Democrats’ Obamacare Millstone
It’s not surprising that William Galston would like to see Democrats’ “move on” from the policy catastrophe known as Obamacare, but Republicans won’t let them. By attacking Obamacare the GOP can simultaneously advance the interests of the middle class and discredit Democrats as Big Government elitists. Over the next two years a Republican Congress will try to dismantle the law piece by piece—repealing the Medical Device Tax, the Employer Mandate, the Individual Mandate, and on and on. Jeb Henserling, Chairman of the House Finance Committee, suggests that Obamacare be made voluntary, which effectively blows it up.
Democrats are in a box. As a practical matter they can’t abandon Obamacare or permit wholesale changes; the Warren Wing of the Party would never allow it, and neither would President Obama. And, since Obamacare is the son of Hillarycare and Romneycare, Hillary cannot disavow the law. Democrats are stuck with defending an unpopular, dysfunctional law that probably hurts more people than it helps while throwing a “wet blanket” on the U.S. economy. And Obamacare is just one issue alienating white middle class voters from the Democratic Party. Another is the war on coal, the XL Pipeline, and cheap energy generally. Still another is Obama’s embrace of the tax-cheating, race hustling Al Sharpton and his ilk.
A litmus test for candidates vying for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination will be this: Who can most effectively attack Obamacare and put forward a smart alternative that is both politically attractive and economically sensible? (Neither John McCain nor Mitt Romney were articulate on the subject of healthcare or, for that matter, economic opportunity for the middle class.) I have no doubt that Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Paul Ryan and Chris Christie can do this; I am not so sure about the others.
Copyright Thomas Doerflinger 2014. All Rights Reserved.
